Fact Based Investing Methodology

Our Promise:

A)  We will not make nor follow market predictions,

B)  We will not require equity markets or investors be rational or efficient,

C)  We will not ask you to be in the equity market regardless of market circumstances

Fact Based Investing stays fluid, using careful measurements

focused on Supply and Demand  ‘What Is’

Two truths derived from Supply and Demand analysis

1^st) Markets Trend

The most useful trends for us are those that last from months to years at a time, commonly known as Bull Markets and Bear Markets, and the fact that Markets are irrational and prone to excesses can actually work to our advantage, because irrationality typically extends trends, both up and down.   (In or out of the stock market)

2^nd) Performance Persists

Strength and weakness are more likely to continue than reverse.

How we select Investments, the selection of portfolio-components is based upon the tendency of performance to persist. Researchers have labeled this phenomenon as momentum, and have documented its widespread existence in the markets over a span of many decades. (If your assets are allocated into stock  then what style of stocks offer the greatest advantage)

In his Second Law of Motion, Sir Isaac Newton said that a body in motion tends to stay in motion.  Similarly, in the Stock Market, high performance has been shown to be more likely to continue than to reverse, at any given time. The same holds true for low performance.  It, too, has been shown to be more likely to continue than to reverse, at any given time!

Summary

Fact-based investing, concentrating on the “what is” of the market supply and demand, rejects the “what might be” of prediction-based investing and the “what ought to be” of the theory-based investing. By combining trend identification and high-performance portfolio selection, our Fact-Based Investing strategy gives us what we believe to be the best chance of achieving our twin goals:   To prosper in Bulls Markets, and  reduce potential risk from Bear Markets regardless of your risk tolerance.

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